As the United States celebrates its 250th anniversary this year, Saint Paul ranks the 68th largest city in the nation.

Cross the Mississippi from Minneapolis to Saint Paul and the price tag for one infant in a licensed center stays the same: $26,457 a year. The median household income drops by roughly $7,000. The mechanical effect — affordability burden up to 36.2% of pre-tax pay, score down to 3 of 100 — places Saint Paul last among Minnesota's three indexed cities at 41/100 (Strained, 205th nationally). Ramsey County offers 50 licensed slots per 100 working-parent kids under five, in line with Hennepin, but establishment density runs lower at 3.4 per thousand. The 40.8% single-parent share, nine points above the national figure, concentrates the squeeze on households with no second earner. Same metro price basket; sharper outcome.

Key highlights & actionable takeaways

Score 41/100, Strained, ranked 205 of 250 — last of three Minnesota cities; infant care consumes 36.2% of household income.
Single-parent share 40.8%, nine points above the national 31.8% and well above Minneapolis's 35.7%; affordability score 3/100.
Same $26,457 Twin Cities price basket as Minneapolis on a $73,055 median income — $7,000 less, sharper squeeze.

Actionable takeaways

Saint Paul is the Twin Cities affordability test case. Identical NDCP price to Minneapolis, $7,000 less in median income — and the affordability score collapses from 6 to 3 of 100. Same regional market, sharply different family experience.
The 40.8% single-parent share concentrates the squeeze. Minneapolis sits at 35.7%; the five-point gap with Saint Paul is the structural reason family strain reads 32 here vs. 74 across the river. Ramsey County DHS data on Family Investment Program enrollment would localize the impact.
Watch Minnesota's 2026 PFML rollout in Ramsey County specifically. With 65.4% mothers' LFP — below Minneapolis and national — paid leave for the first 12 weeks may be the single most consequential policy change for Saint Paul households since the start of this decade.

Affordability — 3/100

For a Saint Paul family with one infant in a licensed Ramsey County center, annual care runs $26,457 — about 36.2% of the area's $73,055 median household income. The price tag is identical to Minneapolis (both cities draw on the same metro NDCP cost basket), but the median household here earns roughly $7,000 less, which mechanically pushes the burden ratio up by three percentage points and the city's affordability score down to 3 out of 100 — among the lowest in the cohort. Childcare costs 1.77 times monthly rent. Family child care homes offer a meaningful release valve at $13,672 for an infant — about half the center price — but slots are scarce and concentrated outside the city core. A Saint Paul family with two children in licensed centers can expect to spend over $48,000 a year, more than two-thirds of the median pre-tax household income.

Supply — 50/100

Ramsey County offers an estimated 50 licensed slots for every 100 children under five with working parents — middle-of-the-road by national standards and not a desert by the standard threshold. The 118 licensed establishments translate to 3.4 per 1,000 children under five, lower than Minneapolis's 5.1 and below the national average. The implication: parents who can pay the Twin Cities price often still spend months on multiple waitlists before a slot opens. Supply is sufficient on paper but tight in practice, particularly for infant care, which carries the most expensive staffing ratios for centers.

Workforce — 94/100

The median Saint Paul childcare worker earns $16.95 an hour, or $35,250 a year — the same wage band as Minneapolis and the highest in the Midwest 3 cohort. Even so, that wage covers just 69% of the area's $24.47 single-adult living wage. Centers report difficulty filling lead-teacher positions, particularly for infant rooms where ratios are tightest. The wage gap is the structural reason the supply score sits at 50 rather than higher: Saint Paul has the price points to fund expansion but cannot reliably staff new classrooms.

Family strain — 32/100

Mothers' labor force participation for those with kids under six is 65.4% — below the national rate of 68% and well below Minneapolis's 78.8%. That gap, combined with a single-parent share of 40.8%, produces the lowest family strain score among Minnesota's three indexed cities. The lower LFP figure is consistent with a pattern documented in other high-cost markets: when prices reach a third of household income, lower-earning second parents often calculate that staying home is cheaper than working. The 40.8% single-parent share — about nine points above the national average — concentrates the affordability burden on the households least able to absorb it.

Policy support — 60/100

Minnesota enrolls about 11% of four-year-olds in state-funded pre-K and meets 5.4 of 10 NIEER quality benchmarks. The state's CCDF subsidy reaches 23.9% of eligible children. The most consequential change for Saint Paul families is Minnesota's new Paid Family and Medical Leave program, which takes effect in 2026 and provides up to 12 weeks at roughly 90% wage replacement — one of the strongest paid-leave designs in the country. For single-parent households here, paid leave is not a workforce benefit but a lifeline against the post-birth income cliff. Policy is measured at the state level.

In-home care in Saint Paul

In-home care in Saint Paul reflects metro-wide nanny market patterns, with full-time live-out rates broadly in line with the Twin Cities. The math for Saint Paul families is sharper than for their Minneapolis counterparts: at a $73,055 median income, a sole-employed nanny is out of reach for most households, but nanny shares — splitting one caregiver across two families — can land within range of dual-center tuition. Au pair placements are a small but growing slice of the upper-income household mix. Minnesota's stronger-than-average household-employment regulations raise both protections and compliance demands on host families.

Methodology: The the score is a 0-100 composite score across five dimensions: Affordability (30 pts), Supply (25 pts), Workforce Health (15 pts), Family Strain (15 pts), and Policy Support (15 pts). City-level prices and supply use the city's primary containing county. Policy Support is measured at the state level. Full methodology and data sources: beverly.io/research/methodology.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2019-2023 5-year estimates; U.S. Department of Labor Women's Bureau National Database of Childcare Prices; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OEWS (May 2024) and QCEW; Buffett Early Childhood Institute / Bipartisan Policy Center / Child Care Aware childcaregap.org (Sept 2025); NIEER State of Preschool Yearbook 2024; HHS ACF CCDF FY2023; National Partnership for Women & Families (March 2026).

Methodology. The State of Childcare Index is a 0-100 composite score across five dimensions: Affordability (30 pts), Supply (25 pts), Workforce Health (15 pts), Family Strain (15 pts), and Policy Support (15 pts). Each dimension draws on publicly available federal data: U.S. Census ACS (5-year), DOL Women's Bureau NDCP, BLS OEWS and QCEW, the Buffett/BPC/CCAoA childcaregap.org dataset, NIEER State of Preschool, and HHS ACF CCDF reports. City-level prices and supply use the city's primary containing county. Policy Support is measured at the state level. Full methodology and data sources: /research/methodology.