As the United States celebrates its 250th anniversary this year, North Dakota has one city among the largest 250 in the nation.
In Fargo, the typical infant slot runs $12,914 a year — about $4,250 below the national average — while three out of four mothers of young children remain in the labor force. On a 2026 index that scores all 50 states, North Dakota finishes first. The result is less a story of policy ambition than of demographic arithmetic: low rents, a married-household-heavy population, an oil-economy income base, and a thin under-five denominator that makes per-capita supply look unusually generous. State pre-K reaches just 9% of 4-year-olds; CCDF subsidies cover 14% of eligible kids; there is no paid leave. North Dakota tops the rankings because the math works on its own, not because public investment built the platform.
Key highlights & actionable takeaways
- Strong (71/100), ranked #1 nationally — the only state to clear the Strong-tier cutoff in the 2026 index.
- Establishment density hits 7.14 per 1,000 kids under five, 1.7x the national rate; 75% of mothers of young children work.
- The #1 finish reflects demographic luck and a thin market, not policy: state pre-K reaches just 9% of 4-year-olds, subsidies 14% of eligible kids.
Affordability — 56/100
A center-based infant slot in North Dakota runs $12,914 a year — about $4,250 below the $17,163 national figure and consuming 17.0% of the state's $75,949 median household income, well under the 21.9% national share. The childcare-to-rent ratio sits at 1.15, comparable to the 1.06 national figure and reflecting unusually low rent ($934/month) for a state at this income level. Toddler care runs $12,340; preschool, $11,029. Family child care offers some additional relief at $9,270 for infants. North Dakota's affordability dimension scores in solidly Moderate territory — not because the state has solved childcare pricing, but because the income and population denominators line up favorably. The state's small population, oil-economy income base, and low housing cost combine in a way that makes the per-family math work better than it does almost anywhere else in the country.
Supply — 90/100
North Dakota's strongest dimension and one of the highest supply scores in the entire index. The state licensed 39,060 childcare slots against 44,010 children with potential need — a 24% gap, slightly tighter than the 27% national rate. Of the 63,184 kids under five with all parents working, the licensed system can serve roughly two-thirds at full enrollment. The headline metric is the establishment density: 367 licensed establishments at 7.14 per 1,000 children under five — by far the highest density in the country and more than 1.7 times the national rate. North Dakota's small population is the structural reason for the high density, and the state's home-based provider tradition has held up better than in larger peer markets. Supply is the dimension that anchors the state's #1 overall ranking.
Workforce — 92/100
North Dakota's other top-decile dimension — and the highest workforce score in the index. The median North Dakota childcare worker earns $14.61 an hour — slightly below the $15.41 national median — but reaches 70.9% of the state's $20.61 living wage for a single adult, more than eight points above the 62.6% national share. Annual median pay sits at $30,390 across just 3,870 workers in the occupation. The 92/100 score reflects that the wage stretches further locally than it does anywhere with a higher cost of living. The dimension is the second pillar of North Dakota's #1 ranking. The workforce is small in absolute terms, which means the supply story depends on whether replacement hiring continues to keep pace with retirements — a risk that doesn't show up in this year's snapshot but will in future cycles.
Family Strain — 89/100
Mothers of children under six participate in the labor force at 75.0% — nearly seven points above the 68.2% national rate. Single-parent households make up 26.9% of families with kids under 18, well below the 31.8% national figure and the lowest single-parent share in the Midwest. The Family Strain dimension scores at 89/100, anchored by both metrics simultaneously — high mothers' LFP and low single-parent share. The pattern reflects North Dakota's small-population, married-household-heavy demographic profile rather than any childcare-specific intervention.
Policy Support — 27/100
North Dakota's weakest dimension and the reason the state's #1 overall ranking should be read carefully. State pre-K enrolls just 9% of 4-year-olds and 0% of 3-year-olds — among the lowest access rates in the Midwest. Per-child spending of $6,118 reflects a small but reasonably funded program, with the program meeting just 5 of NIEER's 10 quality benchmarks. CCDF subsidies reach only 14.1% of eligible children (about 4,400 monthly), the lowest coverage rate in the Midwest. The state has no paid family leave program. Head Start serves another 1,737 children. Policy is the dimension where North Dakota underperforms most clearly — the state's #1 ranking is structural and demographic, not the result of public investment in childcare infrastructure. A different state with the same demographics and the same policy footprint would land near the top of the index too. That should not be confused with policy excellence.
City spotlight
Fargo scores 64/100 (Moderate, #26 of 250) — the only North Dakota city in the index. As the lone state representative, Fargo's profile mirrors the state pattern closely: high supply density, strong workforce metrics relative to local cost of living, and weak policy backing. Cass County's household-income base is comparable to the state median, which means Fargo's affordability dimension reflects the underlying state arithmetic rather than a metro-specific premium or discount.
In-home care in North Dakota
Beverly Research perspective: North Dakota's in-home care market is small in absolute terms and concentrated in the Fargo, Bismarck, and Grand Forks metros. Full-time live-out nanny rates typically run $16-22/hour for one child — meaningfully below the national mid-tier and reflecting the state's overall lower cost-of-living base. The supply-rich center market means in-home care competes against a more functional regulated sector than it does in most states; for many families, the per-family economics tilt toward center-based care unless scheduling needs (shift work, oil-field rotations, healthcare residencies) make individualized care a stronger fit. Au pair placements appear in pockets near the academic-medical centers in the larger metros but remain a small share of the overall market.
Methodology: The the score is a 0-100 composite score across five dimensions: Affordability (30 pts), Supply (25 pts), Workforce Health (15 pts), Family Strain (15 pts), and Policy Support (15 pts). State-level prices and supply use population-weighted county aggregates. Policy Support is measured at the state level. Full methodology and data sources: beverly.io/research/methodology.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2019-2023 5-year estimates; U.S. Department of Labor Women's Bureau National Database of Childcare Prices; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OEWS (May 2024) and QCEW; Buffett Early Childhood Institute / Bipartisan Policy Center / Child Care Aware childcaregap.org (Sept 2025); NIEER State of Preschool Yearbook 2024; HHS ACF CCDF FY2023; National Partnership for Women & Families (March 2026).